At the recent P2P National Conference I participated in the first of 2 panel presentations focused on Immigration, Work and New Technologies. My contribution was a presentation titled How Digital Diversity Shapes Employment Outcomes – Digital Inclusion Is a Settlement Imperative. It was a very interesting panel with some interesting connecting threads I want to share before I forget them.
My fellow panelists and their presentations (which you can find embedded/available to download below):
Recruiting the “Perfect” Migrant Worker Through Technologies: Filters, Surveillance and Controls Mylène Coderre – Concordia University
Conditional Status and Digital Precarity: Rethinking Labour Market Access for Temporary Migrants in Canada Marika Jeziorek – Wilfrid Laurier University
Digital Transformation of Public and Community Services: Opportunities for Asylum Seekers Seeking Employment? Marie-Jeanne Blain, Iris Oh, Mireille Paquet, and Gwénaëlle André – Concordia University
The conference keynote, Navigating Uncertainty by Planning for Multiple Futures, provided an overview of how Foresight methodology could be applied in our sector.
Foresight is a thinking exercise intended to stretch our imaginations so that we can move beyond feeling stuck in the status quo and begin to move towards alternative futures. Foresight is not a crystal ball. It is a process of testing possible and plausible scenarios and seeing how we might react and therefore act. A few years ago Jennifer Chan and I tried to get funding for a settlement foresight project, you can find out more about how we positioned the methodology and framework here.
The main point is that foresight is a useful way to approach how we envision possible futures, especially as we navigate a constantly changing immigration system, and uncertain settlement funding infrastructure.
New technology and labour market foresight
Foresight is one of the threads that jumped out at me as my fellow panelists presented. I'll add here a caveat that this is solely my opinion and expression of the threads through our panel. My fellow panelists haven't endorsed my view here. There are other threads that can certainly be pulled out from our panel. In this article I want to focus on a foresight thread.
In our session, I would say that Mylène's presentation provides our likely/plausible future when it comes to how employment recruiters and employers act, if they can - unethically.
Why?
Because what I saw in her presentation was blatantly illegal (in Canada anyway) and discriminatory social media advertising for migrant workers abroad, among other trends such as surveillance, filtering, and control. Essentially, if a recruiter or employer could get away with it, they would. Not surprising. As one participant noted, when they spoke to a recruiter that recruiter had been expressly told by an employer to not include immigrant workers in the mix of recommendations.
Could an employer advertise a position that explicitly made a specific gender, height, age, marital status part of the requirements? Of course not. But apparently online recruitment ads? No problem. Not surprising in a Meta/Facebook world that has relinquished any responsibility whatsoever for the quality, legality, or morality of posted content.
As Mylène shared in her key takeaways from her research:
Low-techs enable migrant workers’ shopping: as commodities, they are filtered through a range of criteria, many of them discriminatory, such as nationality, age, gender, marital status, and physical characteristics.
Low-techs enable the moulding and surveillance of migrant workers’ behaviour prior to their arrival and throughout their stay in Canada.
Through digital filtering and control, recruiters contribute to the everyday construction of the ‘ideal’ migrant worker, i.e., one who aligns with the economic and political interests of the destination country.
This is our plausible future. It's also our current state. It is not likely to change significantly in our current climate.
Marika provided additional insight into our current future direction, but with a glimpse of a preferred, although improbable, digital future. Essentially, how do we design algorithmic systems that are inclusive, unbiased, transparent and accountable. There is an entire movement of responsible technology organizations, policy analysts, etc., focused on this preferred future.
As Marika wrote:
We need algorithmic accountability in hiring and immigration processes.
A just system cannot treat belonging as a performance metric.
Marie-Jeanne Blain and I presented what I would suggest is a plausible future, mixed with Mylène's plausible future. In this future, Canada continues to not fully address the digital divide in a meaningful national way. Migrant workers, Newcomers, refugees, and the organizations that support them are left to figure out how to move from digital exclusion that creates barriers to integration and advancement to digital inclusion in the labour market, and beyond.
Most Newcomers are not digitally illiterate or unequipped. But there are nuances in how they bring, use, and employ technology. Digital precarity refers to the vulnerability newcomers face when their digital skills and strategies aren't recognized or valued in the Canadian labour market.
And, so, as usual, the plausible future is a continuation of our current present state. Newcomers and those who support them must bridge the digital divide, employer expectations, and increasing AI usage across the socio-economic spectrum to ensure that Newcomers do not face additional barriers, layered on top of already challenging labour market access issues, such as credential, skill, and previous employment experience recognition (also part of the current present state and plausible future).
Beyond Newcomers themselves, our sector, and a smattering of labour market, technology, and policy allies, there isn't currently the political will to create the preferred future. This preferred future, beyond technology is well outlined by WES' Shamira Madhany in a recent post-conference LinkedIn post:
"Our session today shared key takeaways from these discussions and explored how Canada can move beyond short-term fixes toward a coherent, long-term immigration strategy – one that is guided by clear goals, measurable outcomes, and whole-of-government coordination. Key themes included:
Recognizing immigrants’ contributions to our social and economic fabric
Building consensus and shifting the public narrative
The urgency of unlocking newcomer talent"
What I've outlined is not really a pleasant or positive outlook, I know. We should be working towards Marika's and Shamira's preferred future. But we must do so as we negotiate and plan for the plausible future, which we is essentially a continuation of our current reality.
Oh, and if you're wondering if there is interest, curiosity, and ideas about foresight in our sector, I pasted most of the Slido questions from the foresight keynote after the presentation downloads below.
Here is my presentation and the foresight keynote for you to review.
It’s discussed the rental affordability crisis in NS may stem not only from increased international student enrolment, but also from an influx of homebuyers relocating from larger, more expensive provinces. What would you comment on this?
Do you think risk management incorporated with strategic foresight help for better planning?
In those futures strategic foresight how do you plan on retaining those skilled workers whose Canada sewms to need but at the same time are not recruited based on their experience rather than their canadian experience?
If you were advising IRCC and settlement agencies, what 3–4 ‘multiple futures’ would you insist we build scenarios around for the next 10–15 years?
What economic trends over the next 3-5 years are most likely to impact newcomer integration, and how should settlement services adapt now to stay ahead of those changes?
What are some trends that you are seeing given your usage of strategic foresight?
Any thoughts on the population growth in NS, was it in part, the COVID effect, and immigration (PN program, AIP, etc)
Are there governments / departments using Strategic Foresight? Often we are having to respond to their lack of political will / foresight.
Entre la prospective et la prévision, qui doit accompagner l'autre ?
What are the “unsinkable” assumptions in our ecosystem?
The new study shows that lots of immigrants are moving back after more than 20 years in Canada, what does that mean for you
What suggestions do you have for non-newcomers, such as long-time residents or children of immigrants, who need to navigate employment, housing, and health, given that such services may not have been as available in the past?
From an economic development perspective. How do rural communities compete to attract newcomers and retain existing talent
What new black swans might affect immigration in Canada in the foreseeable future? Regarding Syria, Afghanistan, Sudan, Palestine, and Ukraine, what lessons can we learn for the immigration sector and population planing? (edited)
How relevant and realistic would strategic foresight be for settlement organizations that are really not in control of what their futures look like (they have no control over resources, decisions, policies, etc.)
In the foresight work you do or are aware of, how much of basic design theory and thinking from ‘systems design leadership’ perspective do you see being used?
What are some trends you are seeing that could affect immigration and the settlement sector that perhaps people are not focusing on but probably should?
When the future of settlement services is evolving in many directions at once, how can small SPOs ensure newcomers can actually find us?
What do you think it is missing from the planning of the Federal Government's target levels of immigration?
What future do you imagine with a reduced immigration policy that the IRCC has instituted?
What are trends that we don’t commonly think about should be highlighted?
do you have strategies or tips to use strategic foresight for a sector with high turnover? (eg. high burnout, short term contracts, inconsistent funding…)
How do we build interest and buy in from the front line to pay attention to larger issues that impact their work in the long term
Is there 1 special outlier possibility you would love to see Nova Scotia engaging more with?
How can you incorporate the constantly changing federal regulatory framework into your foresight planning?
Considering that many climate refugees are affected by environmental changes they did not create, how can we raise meaningful awareness and help communities better prepare to welcome and support them in the future?
How can we connect with you?
By planning for the future and working out the outcomes, can you also shape the future?
How do you use succession planning to build strategic foresight to ensure organizational sustainability
How can we go about shaping the future to mitigate the effects of racism and discrimination while trying to underscore the economic return on investment of immigration?
Are there any aspects of the Ivany Report / One Nova Scotia report that were especially strong areas of where we have seen population change?
Can you offer any tips for overcoming resistance to strategic foresight planning?
Can we reasonably predict/influence the attitudes of the host communities towards migrants in the close future?
What are considerations for future planning based on the values that centre human rights and access to basic needs (affordable housing, education, food) for all. How can we centre world views of collaboration and care for all.
How can foresight planning work across many different sectors and problems at once, given so much is interconnected and world is extremely complex.
Would it help to look at previous events to plan for future possibilities? Or is it still possible for black swans to pop up especially in our sector?
With so many future possibilities how do you decide where to focus your attention?
Can you recommend open source tools and resources small orgs can use to guide a strategic foresight exercise?
By planning for the future and working out the outcomes, can you also shape the future?
How do you reconcile Strategic Foresight, which seems to require a certain level of agility, with rigid systems and structures?
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